East Bloc Unable to Launch Quick Attack, Secret U.S. Study Finds

WASHINGTON —  The U.S. intelligence community, in a fundamental reassessment of the military balance in Europe, has concluded that for the past several years, the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies have been incapable of quickly launching a massive attack against the West.

The finding is contained in a classified study for the secretary of defense completed before political reforms swept through Eastern Europe, an upheaval that officials say has further reduced the danger of an attack against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization from the East.

The study depicts as outdated two scenarios for war in Europe that drove the West to keep its forces at a high level of readiness over the past decade: a Soviet invasion with little advance preparation, the so-called standing start or bolt-out-of-the-blue attack, and a Soviet attack after only two weeks of mobilization.

In the most likely circumstances for a Soviet attack, the study reports, “the intelligence community believes we would have some 33 to 44 days of warning time.” This is a consensus judgment of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency, the report said. In some cases, the West might know as far as six months in advance of a major war, the study stated.