8 Million Carrying AIDS Virus, Health Group Says

The global AIDS epidemic is “accelerating dramatically” and there may now be as many as 8 million to 10 million people infected with the virus, according to a World Health Organization report released Tuesday.

The revised figures--which pushed the toll 2 million higher than the estimates made by WHO just over a year ago--reflect a continuing worsening of the epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa and an unexpected surge in HIV infections in Asia, where just two years ago AIDS was virtually nonexistent.

“It is now clear that the toll of HIV infection around the globe is worsening rapidly, especially in developing countries,” said Michael Merson, director of the WHO Global Program on AIDS. “Furthermore, if HIV prevalence over the next couple of years increases markedly in Asia and Latin America, and continues to expand in sub-Saharan Africa, then our projections--which are considered conservative--will need to be revised even further upward.”

AIDS experts said that the estimates given by WHO could not be considered definitive, since information on the spread and extent of HIV infection is, in many countries, either scanty or nonexistent. Nonetheless, WHO’s figures represent the most complete picture available for the dimensions of an epidemic that has become the leading cause of death in some parts of both the developing and developed world.

In sub-Saharan Africa, WHO epidemiologists estimate the number of people infected with HIV has increased from 2.5 million in 1987 to 5 million today. This means that one in 40 adult men and women in the area is now believed to be infected.

In Asia, according to the report, the number infected with HIV has gone from virtually zero to 500,000 in the past two years.