When It Comes to Planning, Disagreement Is Crucial

Businesses interested in achieving accurate forecasts should make sure that their planning committees agree to disagree. Futurists have found that disagreement among committee members forces the group to look at more alternatives. Examinations of group behavior have concluded that judgments made by groups are more accurate than those by individuals precisely because of this tendency to disagree.

“With more disagreement, people are forced to look at a wider range of possibilities,” says psychologist Rebecca A. Henry, co-author of a recent study of group behavior. “It makes them think of things they hadn’t thought of before.”

The study found that the greater the disagreement at the beginning of a group discussion, the more accurate the final judgment.

Forecasts of sales and other financial data made by groups are generally more accurate than the forecasts of individuals. The use of committees for forecasting can lead to a significant increase not only in the accuracy of the forecast but also in a company’s confidence in it.

Businesses should be wary of committees that strive for an easy consensus. Henry suggests that individuals should be encouraged to make judgments before a meeting, which will almost guarantee disagreements.

Trend Toward Bald Women

Balding men may have company in the future: Hair loss by working women seems to be on the rise. In Japan, a growing number of women have the same types of baldness as men--thin hair at the crown or receding hairlines. According to the Nippon Hair Specialists Assn., the number of women seeking treatment for balding has more than doubled in the past few years.

Some experts attribute this increase to a growing number of women in the work force. Working women are increasingly facing employment stresses traditionally felt by men. Along with an increase in the number of women experiencing stress-related illnesses such as heart attacks, hair loss aggravated by stress may, for some women, be a result of the hectic pace of the modern workplace.

Look for more women wearing hairpieces too. In recent years, three of every 10 customers buying hairpieces in Japan were women. According to one hairpiece manufacturer, at least 5 million women in Japan are worried about thinning hair.

Changes in an Aging World

Offices and stores are in for a major redesign. The graying of America--a steady rise in the number of elderly as the baby boom generation ages--means that the structures where people work and shop will need to be redesigned to accommodate an aging society.

Ken Dychtwald, president of Age Wave Inc., which advises businesses and government on the implications of an aging America, says the growing number of elderly will necessitate changes in physical design and environment as businesses and stores seek to attract older Americans as both workers and customers. Stores and offices with fewer and less steeply pitched stairs, physical spaces rearranged to provide better access for people whose flexibility is limited, transportation devices such as motorized walkways to increase mobility and even furniture that responds to verbal commands will allow the elderly to work and shop more easily.

Futurists suggest that during the 1990s workers over 50 will find a growing demand for their stability, expertise and experience. At the same time, Americans over 50 will also account for more than three-fourths of the nation’s wealth and half of its discretionary spending, which will make stores even more eager to accommodate them.

Snubbing a Shorter Week

For years, we’ve been hearing about how we will all work fewer hours in the future. But those predicting the shorter work week may be in for a surprise: A recent survey said most workers don’t want it.

The survey, conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed that about two-thirds of all workers, if given a choice, would not want to change their work week. Of those who would change the number of hours they worked if given a choice, most said they would opt to work more hours--and earn more money. Only 6% of the men and 9% of the women expressed a preference for a shorter work week accompanied by a wage cut.

In reality, the 40-hour work week may already be a myth. Another recent study found that the average work week is now about 49 hours. Among business men and women, more than 85% work more than 45 hours each week.